Ricardo de Sampaio Dagnino

Citation:

JOHANSEN I, Dagnino R, CARMO R, ARILHA M, YAZAKI L. Potential expansion of Zika virus in Brazil: analysis from migratory networks. Cape Town, South Africa; 2017. copy at www.tinyurl.com/2z3mqpog

Abstract:

The main goal of this study was to present the pathways or trajectories the Zika virus tends to expand through Brazil. Therefore, we proposed to map the network of cities that are linked to two important points of occurrence and distribution of cases of the disease, the municipalities of Recife and Rio de Janeiro. Recife for being an initial point of distribution of the Zika cases to the country, whereas the analysis of Rio de Janeiro can present the paths that the virus tends to follow from now. As data sources, we used the Brazilian Population Census (IBGE, 2010) and the National System of Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). From the Census it was possible to analyze the main migratory flows between Brazilian cities that presented Dengue epidemics between 2008 and 2012 (the mosquito vector of this disease is the same as Zika, Aedes aegypti). The results indicate the possible path that led to the distribution of the Zika virus from Recife to other locations in the Brazilian Northeast, reaching Rio de Janeiro, Brasília (the national capital) and, from there, spreading to the other states of the country.

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https://professor.ufrgs.br/dagnino/files/2017_iussp_zika_fullpaper.pdf