<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Prass, Taiane S.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bravo, Juan Martin</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Clarke, Robin T.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Collischonn, Walter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lopes, Sílvia R.C.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Water Resources Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Long-range dependence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Upper Paraguay River</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">water-level</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011WR011358</style></url></web-urls></urls><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">48</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;The paper compares forecasts of mean monthly water levels up to six months ahead at Ladário, on the Upper Paraguay River, Brazil, estimated from two long-range dependence models. In one of them, the marked seasonal cycle was removed and a fractionally differenced model was fitted to the transformed series. In the other, a seasonal fractionally differenced model was fitted to water levels without transformation. Forecasts from both models for periods up to six months ahead were compared with forecasts given by simpler “short-range dependence” Box-Jenkins models, one fitted to the transformed series, the other a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Estimates of parameters in the four models (two “long-range dependence”, two “short-range dependence”) were updated at six-monthly intervals over a 20 year period, and forecasts were compared using root mean square errors (rmse) between water-level forecasts and observed levels. As judged by rmse, performances of the two long-range dependence models, and of the ARMA (1,1) short-range dependence model, were very similar; all three out-performed the seasonal short-range dependence ARMA model. There was evidence that all models performed better during recession periods, than on the hydrograph rising limb.&lt;/p&gt;
</style></abstract><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;Open Access&lt;/p&gt;
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