@article {doi:10.1029/2011WR011358,
	title = {Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	volume = {48},
	number = {5},
	year = {2012},
	note = {<p>Open Access</p>
},
	abstract = {<p>The paper compares forecasts of mean monthly water levels up to six months ahead at Lad{\'a}rio, on the Upper Paraguay River, Brazil, estimated from two long-range dependence models. In one of them, the marked seasonal cycle was removed and a fractionally differenced model was fitted to the transformed series. In the other, a seasonal fractionally differenced model was fitted to water levels without transformation. Forecasts from both models for periods up to six months ahead were compared with forecasts given by simpler {\textquotedblleft}short-range dependence{\textquotedblright} Box-Jenkins models, one fitted to the transformed series, the other a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Estimates of parameters in the four models (two {\textquotedblleft}long-range dependence{\textquotedblright}, two {\textquotedblleft}short-range dependence{\textquotedblright}) were updated at six-monthly intervals over a 20 year period, and forecasts were compared using root mean square errors (rmse) between water-level forecasts and observed levels. As judged by rmse, performances of the two long-range dependence models, and of the ARMA (1,1) short-range dependence model, were very similar; all three out-performed the seasonal short-range dependence ARMA model. There was evidence that all models performed better during recession periods, than on the hydrograph rising limb.</p>
},
	keywords = {forecasting, Long-range dependence, Upper Paraguay River, water-level},
	doi = {10.1029/2011WR011358},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011WR011358},
	author = {Prass, Taiane S. and Bravo, Juan Martin and Clarke, Robin T. and Collischonn, Walter and Lopes, S{\'\i}lvia R.C.}
}
